A Little Bit of Vaccination

Non-intuitive (yet obvious in hindsight) illustration of how even a small percentage of vaccination – when delivered to the appropriate population segments – can drastically reduce the number of COVID fatalities.

With just the 51,000 over-90s vaccinated, which is around 0.5% of Israel’s population, the total risk of fatalities from Covid-19 drops a huge 19%.

Expanding vaccination to all over-80s would only require 273k people to be vaccinated, but would more than half the fatality risk of the virus.

By the time we’ve vaccinated all over-70s, we’ll be up to 76% lower fatality risk with just 735,000 people vaccinated.

This is a real-life example of the 80-20 (Pareto) principle. This is why most COVID vaccines aren’t even yet being trialed on teenagers – the lowest risk group from a fatality point of view. The first few months of COVID statistics have been tremendously useful in helping us target those sets of people (elderly, suffering from comorbidities, exposed to high viral loads, etc.) who should be given the vaccine first.

Add comment